Buckrub
01-14-2015, 10:58 AM
For many years, folks who could only logically be called Conspiracy Theorists have screamed, yelled, complained, and carried on like madmen about the why's of oil and gasoline price spirals upward. They were, and maybe still are, convinced.
It is the Speculators. Most of them don't know what a speculator is, of course. It turns out I am one, for I have the ability, in one or two clicks, to change my IRA investment portfolio willy nilly, and thus 'speculate' on what mutual fund is best for me. Oil investors did the same. God bless 'em, because they invested enough money into the "oil bidness" to allow a ton of small wells to be drilled and fracking techniques to be developed to take advantage of them. Shale oil became profitable to go get!! Whoo Hooo! The entire purpose of Carter's experiment to make a US Department of Energy (to make the USA oil independent) might be happening, more in spite of said Department than because of it, but Whoo Hooo nonetheless. Small shallow wells work great for fracking oil out of shale, but they don't last long, and more have to be built repeatedly. Not good, but far preferable to running out of the fuel for our cars, trucks, atv's, lawnmowers, leaf blowers, and chain saws, not to mention the wheels of industry!
Then it was the Goobermunt. Surely they are to blame. This policy, and that, are driving up the cost of gasoline! Oh my!! The Greenies think that Government is buddying up to their friends in Big Oil and giving them too much. The other side thinks that the Government is taxing and regulating the industry to death. But for sure, Government is at fault!!! Get them out of the way, and prices will fall.
Conspiracies abounded.
Turns out, the real culprit in the fluctuation of oil and gas prices is...........wait for it...............Supply and Demand.
Supply has remained constant, demand has crashed, and the providers of the majority of the world's oil are simultaneously deciding to amp UP supply and drive down costs, thus running out of business the guys who made shale oil production possible........
I stood on the Oil City, LA oil field with the owner of a major U.S. drilling company in about 1985 and looked at the first attempts to inject hot water into the ground to free up shale oil. The taxes alone on the new wells was exorbitant. The old ones were grandfathered, and taxes were lower, but they had to be replaced......that's how shale oil drilling works. Only when the price of oil became high enough, could this process become profitable. And it did, and it did.
And then the mean old Arabs, the bad guys, the ones that got lucky when Moses settled down in the only place in the Mideast that has no oil, leaving them a future gold mine, decided they wanted to be the only game in town more than they wanted a few more current dollars. And thus, the price of oil and gasoline has plummeted, and probably will for a while. Why?
Because of Supply and Demand. And nothing else.
It is the Speculators. Most of them don't know what a speculator is, of course. It turns out I am one, for I have the ability, in one or two clicks, to change my IRA investment portfolio willy nilly, and thus 'speculate' on what mutual fund is best for me. Oil investors did the same. God bless 'em, because they invested enough money into the "oil bidness" to allow a ton of small wells to be drilled and fracking techniques to be developed to take advantage of them. Shale oil became profitable to go get!! Whoo Hooo! The entire purpose of Carter's experiment to make a US Department of Energy (to make the USA oil independent) might be happening, more in spite of said Department than because of it, but Whoo Hooo nonetheless. Small shallow wells work great for fracking oil out of shale, but they don't last long, and more have to be built repeatedly. Not good, but far preferable to running out of the fuel for our cars, trucks, atv's, lawnmowers, leaf blowers, and chain saws, not to mention the wheels of industry!
Then it was the Goobermunt. Surely they are to blame. This policy, and that, are driving up the cost of gasoline! Oh my!! The Greenies think that Government is buddying up to their friends in Big Oil and giving them too much. The other side thinks that the Government is taxing and regulating the industry to death. But for sure, Government is at fault!!! Get them out of the way, and prices will fall.
Conspiracies abounded.
Turns out, the real culprit in the fluctuation of oil and gas prices is...........wait for it...............Supply and Demand.
Supply has remained constant, demand has crashed, and the providers of the majority of the world's oil are simultaneously deciding to amp UP supply and drive down costs, thus running out of business the guys who made shale oil production possible........
I stood on the Oil City, LA oil field with the owner of a major U.S. drilling company in about 1985 and looked at the first attempts to inject hot water into the ground to free up shale oil. The taxes alone on the new wells was exorbitant. The old ones were grandfathered, and taxes were lower, but they had to be replaced......that's how shale oil drilling works. Only when the price of oil became high enough, could this process become profitable. And it did, and it did.
And then the mean old Arabs, the bad guys, the ones that got lucky when Moses settled down in the only place in the Mideast that has no oil, leaving them a future gold mine, decided they wanted to be the only game in town more than they wanted a few more current dollars. And thus, the price of oil and gasoline has plummeted, and probably will for a while. Why?
Because of Supply and Demand. And nothing else.