Just leave this here till Tuesday morning

[Buckrub]

No reason other than I hate polling, the entire concept, and would hope for their immediate and shame filled demise.......other than that, I'm neutral and just am interested how close they get to reality.

So, on Tuesday morning, compare reality to this "last poll"......

On Saturday evening, Bloomberg Politics and the Des Moines Register released the results of their final Iowa caucus poll, which is conducted by by widely-respected pollster Ann Selzer and has been extremely accurate in recent years.

For the Republican race, the poll found Trump in first among likely caucusgoers with 28 percent, Ted Cruz in second with 23 percent, and Marco Rubio in third with 15 percent. No other candidate topped 10 percent support.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is ahead with 45 percent among likely caucusgoers, followed by Bernie Sanders with 42 percent. Martin O'Malley is very far back, with just 3 percent.

[Big Muddy]

6530

[Cards01]

..

[Thumper]

..

You can say that again!

[Thumper]

No reason other than I hate polling, the entire concept, and would hope for their immediate and shame filled demise.......other than that, I'm neutral and just am interested how close they get to reality.

So, on Tuesday morning, compare reality to this "last poll"......

On Saturday evening, Bloomberg Politics and the Des Moines Register released the results of their final Iowa caucus poll, which is conducted by by widely-respected pollster Ann Selzer and has been extremely accurate in recent years.

For the Republican race, the poll found Trump in first among likely caucusgoers with 28 percent, Ted Cruz in second with 23 percent, and Marco Rubio in third with 15 percent. No other candidate topped 10 percent support.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is ahead with 45 percent among likely caucusgoers, followed by Bernie Sanders with 42 percent. Martin O'Malley is very far back, with just 3 percent.

I guess they kinda blew it. ;)

[Chicken Dinner]

Interesting night. According to the talking heads, the Clinton campaign is claiming victory and acting like they lost. Saunders campaign is calling it a tie and acting like they won. Cruz is getting all the headlines, but I think Rubio almost picking off Trump is the real story here. It seems like all the momentum is going against The Donald.

[Thumper]

Trump has been a circus side-show, but I have to admit, there's this little "curiosity thing" inside me that will always make me wonder how he'd handle the job.

Cruze seems like an ok guy, but have you ever looked at somebody and even though you don't even know him (or her) or anything about him, you just immediately don't like him? That's how Cruze strikes me. I have no idea why ... no rhyme or reason, but I just don't like the guy for some reason. Weird. Wrong and weird, but I can't seem to shake it.

I was a closet Rubio fan from the beginning. He did an ok job in Florida. Nothing terribly exciting, but I have no real problem with him. I was beginning to think he didn't have a chance (the way Bucky's polls have been going), but after last night, maybe I wouldn't be wasting my vote after all. I may have to take a closer look.

[Chicken Dinner]

The story here in DC is that everyone who knows Cruz through his work in the Senate despises him. For some, that may be a good thing. Personally, I don't think that's how you get anything done. For some, that may be a good thing as well. I've kind of landed on Rubio mostly because he seems like the only viable alternative to Trump and Cruz. I'll be interested in seeing how Kasich does when some of the others start dropping out.

I guess we get our chance next month. I'm half way seriously thinking about crossing over and voting in the Democratic primary so I can vote against Hilary. (We don't register by party affiliation in VA.)

[HideHunter]

I wasn't shocked. To be completely honest, I haven't picked a horse in this race, so, I've kind of been sitting back observing. As you have probably ascertained, our caucus process is complicated - and thus, even tougher to get people (especially first-timers) to participate.. It was my observation, a lot of the people really jumping (up and down) on the Trump bandwagon were unlikely to actually participate. The Cruz supporters seemed a bit more "thoughtful" and had reasons they were leaning that way other than - "he says what he thinks". Who knows?

Now, please ignore us again.. I'm not much a fan of technology but "caller ID" may be my favorite invention since the refrigerator magnet.

[Buckrub]

My post was about polling..........(but GH folks can post anything they like anywhere!! :))

Here's how that "almost always right" poll shook out.......Predictions vs. Reality for each.

Hillary 45........vs. 49.9
Sanders 42......vs 49.6
O'Malley 3........vs 0.6

Trump 28........vs 24.3
Cruz 23...........vs 27.7
Rubio 15..........vs 23.1

And I haven't given my choice or opinion.......although it's changed since this all started.

[quercus alba]

I don't think Cruz or Rubio has a snowballs chance of beating Hillary. If Trump doesn't get the nomination, it'l be a massacre

[Buckrub]

I don't think Cruz or Rubio has a snowballs chance of beating Hillary. If Trump doesn't get the nomination, it'l be a massacre

If you can overlook the verse condemning gambling (you know, the one that doesn't exist :)), I'll bet you that you're wrong. I said the same thing for a LONG time.

But a Democratic Socialist of ALL THINGS is wanted by 1/2 of Iowa Democrats more than they want Hillary. I think if they'd have run Snoopy against her, he'd have done equally well. The fact that anyone is a better choice to a significant group of Democrats is very telling.

And people are tired of "getting things done" type of people, IMHO. They don't want anything else 'done'. They want things undone. Establishment guys are going to have a problem............but I admit Rubio's showing, as Hank said, is interesting. He is probably going to get the backing of traditional GOP'ers for the rest of the races.

[airbud7]

Polls are a joke cause nobody ever ask me.

[Thumper]

I assume they've been TRYING to ask me, but I'm with Hidey-Ho ... caller ID is one of mankind's greatest inventions! ;)

[Buckrub]

^^^^ What he said. I was about to say same thing. I'm sure they are calling me.......everyone else is. I just don't answer calls if don't know the caller.

[Thumper]

We don't even answer the home phone and "might" glance at the caller ID list once or twice/year. The phone line is for DSL only as far as I'm concerned. Hey, I know, I know ... but remember, I'm the guy whose tv is still on basic cable. I figure if someone doesn't have my cell # or eMail addy, I prolly don't want to talk to them.

[Buckrub]

OH I answer it. But only if you are one of the 10 people that are my list for 'special ring'. If it's a regular ring, nope, never. Don't care what the caller ID says (unless rarely expecting a call back and we watch for a number). I even disconnected my answering machine because I was tired of listening to the stupid messages, mostly either recorded, or threatening!!!!

[Chicken Dinner]

Bucky, I would arguing that getting stuff "undone" is actually "doing" something. But, that's discussion for another day. I also disagree with QA that Trump is the only one that can beat Hilary. (The polls actually don't show that.:D) I would actually argue the opposite.

[Buckrub]

That's a good point, HH. I was 'playing semantics', but your view of that is really true.

I don't know who can beat whom. I see 1/2 of America Liberal and 1/2 Conservative, and I see a Chasm so wide as to never be closed. I see Winning and Losing, but never again do I see Compromise. In fact, Compromise is what I hear folks complaining about the most........they see it as capitulation to an invalid ideal.

Most political philosophies would love to see their side winning over the hearts of everyone, and being the 100% group. But Democratic Socialism is one who has to have a symbiotic relationship to exist. Socialism doesn't produce anything. They just scream "life's not fair" and demand largesse from those who do. So they could probably never be more than a theoretical 1/2 of a society.

Demagogues are not that way. They want the world to kowtow to them, because they know best. They are also Elitists, but from the other side of the Chasm. They are always dangerous.

I'd prefer neither is the next President.

But I also wonder if the fish care.

[Buckrub]

And here is an interesting tidbit......it's what the Liberals are saying about the Republicans themselves trying to undermine Cruz.

http://www.politicususa.com/2013/09/22/fox-news-admits-republicans-opposition-research-ted-cruz.html

[Chicken Dinner]

You know Bucky, I think it's actually something like 40% conservative and 40% liberal (or maybe 45/45) and there's 10-20% in the middle that are pretty much deciding everything. If the D's get to far left they vote R and if the R's get too far right they vote D. I had a conversation with a buddy who is a staffer on the Hill for a fairly non-partisan Committee. He said the most of the Members are way more afraid of being defeated in a primary than they are in a general election and it drives them to the extremes on both sides. If they can survive any potential primary challenge over "purity" issues, they're almost guaranteed to be reelected.

[Buckrub]

Again, you make a great point.

BUT, when what you say is done happening.........ultimately it's still 50/50 ain't it?