Hey, Thump and east coast guys.....

[Big Muddy]

Thump, I hope you got somebody to check on your house, in the event that Hurricane Matthew comes knocking....it looks disastrous for Haiti and Hispaniola with up to 35 inches of rain predicted....and, your area is on the outer western edge of it, as it crosses into Fla....possible 105 mph wind gusts for eastern Fla.

You NC and SC guys might need to keep your eyes to the sky, too, because it looks like it might wander up your way, too.

[Captain]

Looks like our Florida house is gonna take a hit. Then the eastern part of NC also.
Hope my daughters palce in Statesboro is gonna be OK. Looks like our NC and SC farms are gonna get rain and some wind but I think we are far enough west and inland to OK here.

[BarryBobPosthole]

Artie and Airbud?

[Chicken Dinner]

I think RT is inland even if he is in VA Beach. No sure about Airbud. Here in DC, these events are typically flooding from rain and lost power/damage from downed trees, etc.

[Big Muddy]

The NHC just updated the potential path to a more westward track, which will certainly affect nearly the entire state of Fla. and the eastern coastal states....this mofo looks dangerous !!!

[Captain]

This is what they are putting out for law enforcement in our area. If they are calling for this in the Piedmont area of NC the coast will be slammed.
Looks like a rough weekend ahead.

"
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) impacts from Hurricane Matthew are possible for the Piedmont of North Carolina by late Friday or Saturday morning continuing through the weekend. There is a large uncertainty in precise details of Matthew impacts due to the uncertainty in Matthew’s path and potential landfall.

Rainfall in Union County is currently predicted to be between 2”-3”, with moderate to strong winds."

[BarryBobPosthole]

7837

[Captain]

That's a big bad Mo-Fo

[Chicken Dinner]

Not to be crass, but I've got football tix for Sunday and hope it blows through before then.

[LJ3]

My Mom's service is this saturday. Should be a good time! :)

[Chicken Dinner]

Well, now I feel like shit.

[LJ3]

Do NOT feel like shit. My Mom would laugh her ass off at the fact that we may get hit with a storm like that on that day :) Where the hell do you think my completely inappropriate sense of humor comes from? Yessir!

[Thumper]

I'm sitting in a little seaside sidewalk restaurant about 10 feet from the water in Argostoli Greece drinking a cold Mythos while soaking up their free wifi. Hurricanes aren't on my worry list while on vacation. Heck, I can't do anything about it anyway. Gonna sail out of here tonight and head for Albania.

For the record, Argostoli is my favorite stop so far. I think I could live here with no problem. Very laid back and friendly.

[DeputyDog]

Where are you stopping in Albania? The Dalmatian coast is beautiful. We went to Dubrovnik and Split in Croatia just north of Albania.

[BarryBobPosthole]

And no Jim, the Dalmation Coast isn't a buffet restaurant.

BKB

[Big Muddy]

Now, the weather ho's are saying it could follow the path of this white line....or, it could just sit and spin, and raise h3ll, right off the Carolina's coast.

I think it was Ivan that made a big circle like this, then came straight up the mouth of the MS River at NOLA....hit my rice crop hard that year....blew nearly all of it down on the ground, and only managed to harvest 50% of that.

Predictive Hurricane Models

7842

[LJ3]

One thing's for sure and that is the weather fucks have no idea where this storm is going to go. I wish they'd just say that.

[Big Muddy]

Yep, I make fun of them, occassionally, too, and maybe they aren't always 100% correct, but they are a pretty dayum smart bunch of folks.
Ever since the 34 tornadoes outbreak here in 1971, when I loaded dead friends and their children in the back of trucks, I've been overly cautious of weather....if the weather folks say get the f**k outta Dodge, I'm gonna be on the next stagecoach. ;)

[Chicken Dinner]

Looks like the first pass is going to miss us to the south. Of course, if it loops around again all bets are off.

[BarryBobPosthole]

If Matthew does a Crazy Ivan......

And weather guessers are a necessary evil where I live. I wouldn't be without 'em!

BKB

[Chicken Dinner]

You guys in Florida especially batten down your hatches and take care of yourselves. I rode out one Cat. 1 hurricane (Dennis) in the OBX one year with sustained winds of just 75mph and I can't imagine sustained winds twice that because that house up on stilts was rocking and rolling. This is from the hurricane center:

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

While it's looking better for the Carolinas and northward, some of the models show a boomerang and this thing could hit Florida twice.

[LJ3]

My first honeymoon was in Jamaica with a direct hit from Gilbert. It was a 4 or 5 from what I remember. There were 2 radios stations back then and when we got to our room, both stations had the Prime Minister of Jamaica praying for the whole country, then radio silence.

Some of it is a blur after that but I honestly didn't know if we would survive. We were oceanfront. I remember seeing a large catamaran fly by the window horizontally, then the mast stuck in the ground and it came to a comical stop, wagging back and firth in the ground, mast first. At some point I realized our room wasn't going to survive so I grabbed my wife and we tried to get back to the main lobby which at least had some concrete structure to it.

I will never forget the peace and tranquility as the eye passed over us and all the tropical birds flying around inside the eye. Then all hell broke loose in the other direction.

[LJ3]

I found the track from '88. Talk about a direct motherfucking HIT!

7876

[LJ3]

Sorry... I Thumped the post. This isn't about me :)

[Chicken Dinner]

Sorry... I Thumped the post. This isn't about me :)

What? Did you get into an orgy with the backup singers from Prince's band when you evacuated to the hotel?

[Captain]

It's sorta looking like our Florida house is gonna be Florida rubble.
It is about a block and a half off the surf and about the same distance off the intercostal.

[BarryBobPosthole]

That sucks. It could still veer off or lose strength. Hang tough.

BKB

[Big Muddy]

Cap, what's the nearest town to your Fla. house???

[Captain]

St Augustine. The oldest city in the US. Just below Jacksonville.

[Chicken Dinner]

Got my fingers crossed for you Cap!

[Big Muddy]

St Augustine. The oldest city in the US. Just below Jacksonville.

That's a beautiful old city....my Dad told me WW2 stories about, when he was stationed at Moody Field, as a flight instructor, and he and some other officers would fly down there, and spend their weekends in St. Augustine....when I was a youngster, he took us on a nostalgic road trip to St. Augustine and other places he remembered, while he was stationed down there.

It was a wonderful trip, but two things really stand out about that trip....when we first arrived in St. Augustine, us kids were screaming that we wanted to see the ocean....we had never seen an ocean, so Dad drove thru an open gate, which had a sign on it that said, "Do Not Drive On The Beach"....Dad drove right thru that gate, and out onto the beach, and promptly sank his '57 Chevy up to it's axles....cost him $25 bucks(lots of money back then) to get pulled outta the sand.

Then, we drove down the highway to a long pier, and we all walked out to the end of it....Dad told us kids that it was good luck to spit in the ocean, upon our first visit, so we all leaned over the rail, and started spitting like crazy....at that time, my Dad had a removable gold front tooth because his real tooth had gotten knocked out, while cranking a tractor with an old crank handle....he leaned over to spit with us kids, and accidentally, spit out his gold tooth...he was snaggle-toothed the entire trip. ;)

My Mom took pictures of our trip with her little Kodak, and in every picture, my Dad would smile real big, and show his snaggle. ;)

[Captain]

Just talked to a good friend that is riding it out (stupid) Water is already across the leeve at the old fort. The worse is still to come. I imagine I'll have a Florida trip the first of the week.

[BarryBobPosthole]

Man, I'm still hoping you're going to get lucky. It looks like the rest of south Florida dodged a big ole bullet.
Move east, Matthew you sumbitch!

BKB

[Bwana]

Hoping your place can stay safe and dry Cappy.

[Captain]

I been watching the beach cameras around St. Augustine and they have all gone offline now. 6 to 9 foot surge across the island is what they are reporting. I hope John and Candi are OK. They should have got out.

[Big Muddy]

Cap, they just showed a vid clip from St. Augustine of some folks who they say are trapped in a restaurant....the surge waters were nearly up to the top steps.

Bro., I'm sure hoping the best for your place down there, as well as everyone affected by this huge and powerful hurricane.

[Captain]

Thanks Muddy. there is no doubt our lower floor is flooded right now. I just hope the structure stands.
Wish I could get a call through to John.

[BarryBobPosthole]

One of the weather guesser I just heard said 75mph winds ahould be tops for St augustine. So maybe it'll just be water to worry about. As if that isn't enough!
Well, that and looters. We get those in every tornado in Oklahoma.
BKB

[airbud7]

Hate to here that Cappy....I know the SC floods last year was enough but now this!....hang in there Bro!...if you need help cleaning the mess up call me!...

[Captain]

Thanks AirBud!
Still trying to get up with neighbors...

[BarryBobPosthole]

Any news?

[Captain]

Nothin' yet. Cell has not gone through. Either service is FUBARED or his phone is out of juice. I have got the "all circuits are busy" message a couple of times.

[DeputyDog]

Hope everyone is ok and any damage isn't too bad.

[Captain]

Much better than I thought. No flooding got to the house (I don't know how but it didn't) trees down and limbs everywhere
Maybe some shingles gone. Thank goodness John and Candi are OK. They are building contractors and will take care of the damage and clean up the trees. Looks like I get out lucky on this one. The storm is here now (NC) and we are getting some very heavy winds even this far inland and very hard rain. Hopefully all trees will stay upright. They still have all their leaves so they catch a lot of wind.
My fishing buddies Wife died of cancer this week and the funeral is today in Charlotte. I'm certain they will not try to have a graveside service. The sad part is he has cancer also and is in ICU and will not be able to attend his wife's funeral.

[BarryBobPosthole]

Terrific news, Captain.
that is a giant load off of your feeble ass mind I'll bet.

Now go take care of your friend. I'll be thinking about you my friend. I know how much you value the people you call friends and this has to be as tough as anytuing a person has to do.

My best.

BKB

[Chicken Dinner]

Glad to hear about the beach house. At the end of the day, that's just a thing. People are more important and I'll keep your friend and his wife in my prayers.

[Bwana]

So sorry for you buddy and what he is going through.